Introduction
For those of you that don’t know me, I’m a live cash player that has recently decided to play online, sparked by my new found sponsorship deal with www.redkings.com. I’ve been playing live cash games for the last 17 years and I believe I’m one of the few Asians with this many years of experience since No Limit Texas Holdem is a relatively new game here. The reason for writing this article is to impart my limited knowledge about live poker to the online players today and to also discuss certain fallacies online players have about live poker. I’ll try to relate general live poker play to online play such that our online readers will be able to benefit and hopefully improve their live game to their fullest potential.
Live Poker vs. Online Poker
First things first, online poker and live poker is NOT THE SAME GAME! The name might be the same, “No-Limit Texas Holdem”, but that’s the end to their similarities as far as I’m concerned. They are very different games requiring very different “skill sets”. In “skill sets”, I’m not referring to basic poker fundamentals such as counting outs, odds calculation, or any other topics that’s covered in basic poker books out there. I am, in fact, referring to the advanced skills (Which are NEVER found in basic poker books) that a winning player possesses to beat the game he’s playing, may it be online or live. My apologies to beginning players who’ve just finished reading the basic poker books and “think” they can play the game. You might not understand what I mean now, but when you become a winning player in your game, you will! I promise.
The fact that you have been killing an online game doesn’t mean you will do well in live and vice versa. Before we go into the details, let’s clarify our understanding of the 2 games.
Firstly, the basic online mid-stakes game is a grind that requires +EV play over infinite hands. That’s to say that if a player always makes a +EV decision over an infinite number of hands, the player will win in the long run, assuming he is properly bankrolled to withstand the variance. However, what are the skills required to do that? Hmmm....let’s see. Apart from the basic poker skills, the key to making +EV decisions is how a player interprets and understands poker statistics of his opponents and how he uses this information to exploit his opponent. Let’s quote a very simple example, when I face an opponent with a VP$IP of 15%, I know that his range includes:
Big pocket pairs: 2.26%
Premium hands (AK-AT): 6.03%
Mid & low pocket pairs: 3.62%
Ace suited: 2.41%
Suited connectors in late position: 3.02% x 20% = 0.604% (button and cut off on a full-ring table)
If you were to sum up the above percentages you get a total of 14.924%. Pretty damn close to 15% and I’m sure, a pretty accurate description of my opponent’s range. So, given this information, a good online player will be able to capitalise on it and exploit his opponents when the situation allows. A winning online player will be able to analyse not only VP$IP but also all the other vital stats and exploit his opponents’ playing tendencies based on his interpretation of these stats. In other words, the key skill sets required to be a winning online player is, in short, the skill to interpret and analyse most accurately key stats and also the skill to make use of these information in a profitable manner, the skill of exploitation!
However, what has interpreting numbers got to do with live poker? The answer is ABOLUTELY NOTHING! Hence my statement, a good online player doesn’t necessarily make a good live player and vice versa. The secret to live poker lies in the ability to manually gather and interpret opponent’s vital stats WITHOUT A POKER TRACKING SOFTWARE! Secondly, live poker is not about making +EV decision over infinite hands (a huge fallacy among online players!). This is because hands are played so slowly that you will not be able to play enough hands to even out the variance in your life time of live play. This is to say that, if you use the same strategy of making +EV decisions (especially marginal ones), you still might not win in your entire life time of live game play simply because not enough hands are played. How then do you win in live poker? LOL....this is something which no basic poker books will cover. The key in live game play is summarized as follows:
- The ability to accurately gather and interpret your opponent’s vital playing stats using only your five senses, your skill of observation and deduction. This is the skill set that differentiates between the GOOD and the GREAT! And coincidentally, a skill set that is not related to online poker whatsoever.
- The ability to avoid playing marginal spots in live cash games, a good estimate is to get your money in when you are at least 3 to 2 favourite or a +EV value translating to ROI of 20%. Use your common sense, if your calculation indicates a EV of +1 and the required investment is 100, FOLD! Doesn’t make sense to gamble $100 with a 1% ROI. Instead using a 3 to 2 favourite as a guideline, your ROI should be at least 20%, which translate to a EV of +20 for an investment of 100. For example, pot is 100 and your opponent shoved all-in for 100 on the flop (2h 6h 8c) with AsAd, and assuming you are holding KhQh only a pure flush draw, your odds of making your flush and winning is 36.57%. Given the EV calculations detailed below, I would fold this hand in a live game and snap call this very same hand online.
EV= 200(36.57%) -100(63.43) = +9.71 which translates to a ROI of 9.71%I would call this hand in a live cash game only if it’s going to cost me 87.66 or less. (Translating to EV of =>+17.54 or 20% ROI ) An online poker purist would stand to argue that it’s –EV to fold this hand, and I would have to totally agree with him. So, the trick is to FOLD THIS HAND PREFLOP when you are up against a big raise from a short stack! LOL!
- Lastly, to succeed in live game play, you’ll also need the skill to interpret and analyse most accurately the information you have and also to make use of these information in a profitable manner, the skill of exploitation. (This is a skill that all good online players already have)
Table Selection
There’s a saying that goes, “If you are ranked the 10th best poker player in the world sitting on a table with the top 9 ranked players, then “YOU ARE THE FISH ON THE TABLE!” Always table select when you are playing poker, most poker players tend to overestimate their own poker skills and underestimate their opponents’. They would get into a game that they can’t beat or has no value in playing. Always identify the fish on the table before committing yourself to playing the game. If you cannot clearly identify the victim, DON’T PLAY! Don’t get into a game because your ego is too big for you to say no. You have nothing to prove to anyone. Always remind yourself of your objective in playing poker, and that’s to win money. Nothing else matters! Most importantly, you do not need to prove that you can outplay your opponents!
When I get to the casino, I’ll generally walk around and look for the tourists. These guys are generally visitors from out of town that plays home games among their friends. Most of them either drove a few hundred miles or flew a few thousand miles to play at the casino, and I bet you they are going to PLAY! They didn’t drive 10 hours just to sit on the table and play 1 hand per hour. They want to play as many hands as possible before they need to head home. All these factors translate to the making of a GOLD FISH! Keep them close, follow them around the tables if you have to, become their best friends on the table! There was once when I was in Macau. A very rich Chinese Baccarat player was on my table. He’s what I call a money tree...lol! He would buy-in for table maximum and shove all-in blind every hand. If he wins, he shoves all-in blind again! If he loses, he reloads and does the same thing over and over again! When he leaves the table, I followed him right away to the next table. I basically spend my entire day stalking him around the poker room!
How do you know that they are tourist? Well, easy. Here are a few tips, the way they dress, their accent when they speak, the jewellery they wear, or even their shoes will tell a story. If you are still unsure, ASK! “Hi! My name is Jeff, I’m from Singapore. Are you from around here?” Interview your opponents for information, using table conversation as a guise. Use your observation skills to gather information and deduce certain facts from the info acquired.
What if there’s no tourist? If you are unfortunate enough to be stuck in some small time poker room in the middle of nowhere with no tourist in sight, go for the next best thing, THE TEACHER! The teacher is someone who likes to teach other players how to play their game, comments on their opponents’ plays citing odds calculations and poker technicalities that he read somewhere. How do you find these fishes? Simple! Just pay close attention to the table conversation and soon you will pick up familiar remarks such as “How could he call with QToff? He has no odds!”... “I had to call you, I had 3 to 1!”...”I figured I had you dominated with AK, I’m ahead 70/30!”...”I put you on a middle pocket pair; I had to shove you for fold equity...That’s the only way I could win!” Does that sound familiar? LOL! These are the typical tells of a TEACHER. These players probably just started to learn the game recently (perhaps 1 to 2 years), all of them would have read a few books but most importantly, all of them are amateur players. A professional player will NEVER teach or cite poker theories or justify their play with calculations at the table. Simply because they do not want to scare their customers away!
Defining Basic Table Strategy- SWOT analysis of table
Once you have found your table of choice and have sat down, you first order of business is to define your basic table strategy. How are you going to play against the table? Tight Aggressive? Loose Aggressive? Can you bluff the table? Camp and ambush? See more flops with drawing hands? How should you play your pre-flop? How aggressive should you be post-flop? Where’s the short stack? Where’s the fish and the shark relative to your position on the table? What table image do you want to portray to extract maximum value from the table? In order to answer all of the above questions and to define your basic playing strategy against the table, you will first need to analyse the Strength and Weakness of the table. I call this the SWOT analysis. (A tool typically used for analysing business opportunities in the business world) SWOT analysis is an abbreviation for: Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threat.
Strength: Look at the general play of the table and identify which part of the average play on the table is strong. For example, in a typical mid stakes casino game, where most players have read a couple of books and are able to play pre-flop quite well, then you can safely say that the pre-flop play is a strength of the table.
Weaknesses: Look for a leak on the average play of the table. Is the table playing too loose post-flop? Are they calling too many streets? Are there generally too many calling stations? Is the table playing too tight? Find the weakness in the average play of the table.
Opportunity: Where is the fish? Who’s the dead money? Who’s spewing chips unnecessarily? These guys will generally play more pots, call more streets; basically play bad poker. You want these guys to be on your right. You want position over them to extract maximum value.
Threats: Who are the sharks on the table? These guys generally play less pots but their win rate is high. These are the people you generally want to avoid. You want these guys to be on your left since they don’t play many pots, and when they do play, you’re going to fold anyway so position doesn’t matter.
Once you have done the SWOT on the table, you can then use the information you acquired to formulate a generally strategy for your game play. The general guideline here would be to exploit the weaknesses, counter their strengths, tango with the fishes and avoid the sharks. There’s no hard and fast rule in defining your strategy as long as it works! For example, if you are on a table full of calling stations, DON’T BLUFF THEM! Therefore, you should play your drawing hands very selectively. Reason being, there’s no fold equity when you miss your draws. Secondly general cost of drawing is high. The more calling stations, means multi-way pots which also means bigger pots and higher cost to draw and super high variance when you do draw. I like to play set mining poker against a table like that. It’s a drawing hand that only cost you pre-flop. If you miss the flop, FOLD! However, if you do hit, which is at least one maybe twice a day, you can extract maximum value against a table of calling stations. This type of drawing hand provides the highest ROI. It’s impossible to go thru every possible permutation of playing strategy; instead, I’ll just go through an example on how I would formulate my basic strategies and explain the rationale behind my decision.
Example:
Game Type: 1/2 NL Holdem (Home Game)
Players: Mostly Amateurs with 1 to 2 years of experience
Average stack size: Deep (500 big blinds)
Strength: Tight aggressive pre-flop play
Weakness: Playing too weak post flop. Plays too weak when they miss the flop and overplays their hands when they hit. Unable to lay down big hands.
Opportunity: A young punk seated to my right, who raises every hand and likes to make “Superman” moves. Thinks he can outplay the entire table and be the table captain. Bought in for a huge stack.
Threat: A tight-aggressive player seated 2 to my left. Plays post flop well compared to the rest of the table.
My basic table strategy:
- Table image: I want to portray a tight image as I foresee I’ll be bluffing my weak opponents post flop quite often.
- Stack Size: I’ll buy-in deep to cover the entire table. (if my bankroll allows) This is because of the table’s weak post flop play, with a deep stack I can use the hammer to bluff them of their marginal hands, extract maximum value when I have a big hand, and most important of all to stack that young punk to my right.LOL!
- Pre-flop: With the table’s strength lying in pre-flop aggression, I’ll generally play tight in early position and open up my range as I approach the button. Since my opponent’s are generally tight aggressive pre-flop, I do not want to spew too many chips in early position. However, because of their weak post flop play and their tendencies to overplay their hands, I will open up my range significantly to play them post flop in position.
- Post-Flop: My general strategy is to play post flop in position only. If I miss, I have position to bluff, if I hit I can camp and ambush. I want to exploit they tendency to overplay their top pairs and their inability to fold their two pairs.
The above is just an example of how a basic table strategy can be formulated. As previously stated, there’s no hard and fast rule in formulating your strategy. How each player forms his strategy depends largely on their understanding of their opponents, their understanding of poker fundamentals, their poker creativity and their variance tolerance. I’ll stop here for now and we’ll continue with the following topics in my next post.
The Human “Poker Tracker”
Poker Tells Explained
Analysing opponent tendencies and weakness
Playing against their tendencies
Stack play
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